The furor surrounding the electoral bill continues to heighten by the day; especially the section relating to direct primaries among political parties. As the President is currently at the crossroads in determining the destiny of the bill; which route should he go?
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On November 19th, the National Assembly transmitted the harmonized 2021 electoral act amendment bill to President Muhammadu Buhari for executive assent after it was passed by both chambers of the legislature. Central to the bill is the contentious clause of direct primaries for political parties; and while the public awaits the president’s decision, there have been furtive and open opposition to the bill in some quarters and inversely; support to the bill from other key stakeholders who are playing all their cards to ensure that the bill sees the light of the day.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it will need about 17,618 officials to supervise the primaries of the All Progressives Congress and the People’s Democratic Party, if political parties are restricted to direct primaries for the 2023 general elections. With 18 political parties currently registered by the electoral umpire, it indicates the need for more personnel and financial resources to supervise the exercise for all parties.
Seeking a solution to INEC’s complaint, the House of Representatives invited the Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu to clear the air on the cost implication of conducting direct primaries by political parties in the country. In a motion moved by the lawmaker representing Yagba East/Yagba West/Mopa-Muro Federal Constituency of Kogi State, Rep. Leke Abejide which was unanimously endorsed at the session presided over by Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, the house called attention to the speculation making the rounds that it would cost over N500 billion for political parties to conduct direct primaries ahead of the 2023 general elections. As the associated cost implications will be of huge significance to the fate of the Electoral Act, the lawmakers decided that the best time to invite the INEC chairman would be now that the 2022 budget was still pending before the National Assembly. This came few days after President Buhari wrote a letter to the INEC chairman seeking the counsel of the electoral umpire over the electoral act amendment bill currently at his disposal. Buhari, who received the bill on November 19, has until December 19 to sign it to law or communicate to the National Assembly his opinion about the bill. His decision to seek for professional advisory from INEC underpins how multi-faceted the bill and its impact could be; the President is contemporaneously consulting with the office of the Attorney General on same bill too; and it becomes increasingly apparent that even the President is conscious that his personal opinion towards the bill on assenting or not assenting may be insufficient hence the extensive consultations to guide effective decision making.
Ever since the bill was passed by the National Assembly, it has been generating controversy across the political landscape with observers of the view that the inclusion of mandatory direct primaries for political parties in the electoral amendment bill is the major bone of contention unlike previous amendments which gave political parties the carte blanche on the selection of their candidates. This key inclusion of compulsory direct primaries could go a long way in shaping the outcome of the habitual power play between state governors and the other political bigwigs in the build-up to the 2023 general elections.
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According to Babafemi Ojodu, the Special adviser on Political affairs to President Buhari, some members of the National Assembly have been threatening to do this since the Ward Congress of the APC took place as many of them were disenfranchised in their constituencies and had no hope of returning in 2023 because those who emerged officials at this level end up being delegates in indirect primaries and the governors would have found new ‘altar boys and girls.’
Supporters of the bill maintain that direct primaries will strengthen Nigeria’s democracy by increasing participation and reducing the control by a few over the candidate’s selection process in political parties, and ultimately eliminate the phenomenon of political imposition by a powerful few. Those in opposition to the clause have declared the direct primary as intrusive and granting INEC extra powers beyond its immediate purview. Apart from the added financial and logistical costs, they maintain that how political parties produce or select candidates for political elections should be the internal decision of the respective parties based on each party’s dynamic circumstances as against a blanket methodology for all parties which may prove inefficient and onerous.
Speaking recently on why he championed the direct primaries, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila said the direct primaries would bring more accountability and adequate representation as political office holders would not be restricted to pleasing a group of people selected as delegates but work for the interest of the generality of party members and by extension the electorate. He added that many Nigerians especially the youths, were desirous to participate fully in the election of those that would represent them right from the grassroots level, hence his resolve to champion direct primaries.
Also speaking on the direct primaries, the Chairman of the Senate Committee on INEC, who is also a former governor of Kano state during the Second republic, Senator Kabir Gaya, said the direct primary is intended to protect the federal lawmakers from their interference, because the Governors’ control of delegates in the indirect primaries means that they decide everything, such as who will be the next House of Representatives member, or the next senator which according to him his robbing the country of the return of experienced lawmakers.
Despite the seeming acceptability status among the public, there is stiff and growing opposition to the adoption of the mandatory direct primaries for political parties from across the board with opponents contending that it is highly vulnerable to numerical manipulations. Even Governors of the ruling APC under the aegis of the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF), have disagreed with the National Assembly on the adoption of direct primaries as mode for political parties to pick their candidates for general elections. It is believed that the governors may be the primary losers if the electoral amendment bill becomes an act and no doubt they have been fighting back. The governors, through the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and the national leadership of the APC Caretaker Committee, have been lobbying the presidency and making concerted moves to stop the president from signing the bill into law. Governor Abubakar Bagudu of Kebbi, and Chairman, Progressives Governors Forum (PGF), said that adopting direct primaries by political parties will overstretch INEC. He added that if you limit the abilities of parties to choose options that they so desired: “that may even be arguably undemocratic,” because nothing stops one party from adopting one or the other method of primary because political parties are voluntary organizations.
According to the main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), it is the inalienable right of each political party, within the context of our constitutional democracy, to decide its form of internal democratic practices. That the mandatory direct primary will increase the cost of nomination procedure and introduce anarchy to internal party elections. Also reacting to the development, the Inter Party Advisory Council (IPAC), which comprises of all political parties, said the National Assembly’s decision on direct primary has eroded the supremacy of organs of political parties to decide on mode of nominating candidates in tandem with provisions of their constitutions. The council said it would be an uphill task for new political parties to conduct direct primaries for nominating candidates for elections due to financial constraint and could therefore suffocate the growth of new parties.
This is the fourth time an electoral amendment bill will come before President Muhammadu Buhari since his ascendancy to the exalted office. On three previous occasions he has declined his assent leading to speculations that this time around may not be any different especially against pressure from governors in his party for him to reject the direct primaries as contained in the current bill. Successive attempts to get the amendment act signed into law by the eighth national assembly under the leadership of Bukola Saraki was futile as President Muhammadu Buhari declined. His first rejection was in March 2018 where he said the proposed law would usurp the constitutional powers of INEC to decide on election matters. Subsequently, in September 2018, Buhari turned down the bill for the second time, asking the national assembly to revise some clauses, and in December when the bill was rejected for the third time, the president said signing it into law could create uncertainty and confusion as the 2019 elections was just around the corner.
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However, both the Senate president, Ahmed Lawan and the speaker of the house of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila have expressed optimism that president Buhari will sign the bill. The president himself has promised to leave a legacy of free and fair election. In January 2019, while inaugurating the APC presidential campaign council in Abuja, Buhari said he will leave a legacy of credible elections in Nigeria, adding that it is the foundation of political stability and peace in any nation. According to him “Let me reiterate my commitment to free and fair elections. If there is one legacy I want to leave; it is the enthronement of democracy as a system of government. And for democracy to be enthroned, elections must be free and fair”.
Looking at Buhari’s personal political trajectory, he may be enamored to the direct primary ideology because he was a popular candidate who struggled against delegate primary system controlled by party bigwigs and juggernauts for a long time, a factor responsible for his defections and realignments in the past before he led the establishment of the Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), which later merged with other political parties to form the All Progressives Congress. But the bill goes beyond Buhari’s personal leanings as shown by the wide consultations made so far.
Additionally, the coast is not yet clear particularly as cost and complexities consideration gets the center stage especially with the INEC chairman in a recent speech saying conducting election in Nigeria is like conducting it in 14 West African countries, he however, noted that the electoral body would ensure implementation of direct primary as passed by the National Assembly as soon as soon as it gets executive assent by President Muhammadu Buhari.
The options on the table are clear and straight-forward; its either Buhari assents to the bill or returns it to the national assembly; if he doesn’t assent, the national assembly has the powers to override the presidential veto by a two-third majority and translate the bill into a law; a rarity that doesn’t occur many times in the country but it highly probable in this current situation.
The political calendar for 2023 elections will click into full year by the turn of the year and a lot will depend on if direct primaries is the approved norm for political parties. All eyes are on Buhari; the political hemisphere patiently waits.